Will the strong US dollar start to lose upward momentum?
The factors supporting the strong momentum of the US dollar have gradually weakened this year. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 105 points during this week’s trading after failing to breach the 106.5 point level in recent weeks. Despite this, the US dollar remains high since… The beginning of the year increased by more than 3.5%, supported by the US economy remaining strong and the Federal Reserve’s adherence to its strict stance towards interest rates, which increases the attractiveness of the dollar, but there are many challenges facing the performance of the US currency in the coming period.
1. The American economy is no longer overheated
The annual GDP growth rate in the first quarter was only 1.6%, which is the worst quarter since the technical recession in the first half of 2022, which negatively affected the US dollar in the currency trading market . In April, both the ISM services and manufacturing index recorded a reading of less than 50.
point, indicating that the economy may slow in the second quarter of 2024. The US consumer confidence index fell for the third straight month in April, reaching 97, the lowest level since July 2022.
2. The labor market in the United States is tight
New employment in the non-farm sector fell to 175,000 jobs in April from 315,000 jobs in March, falling below 200,000 for the first time in the past five months, and the annual growth rate of average hourly wages slowed in April to 3.9% for the third month in a row. This is the first time since June 2021 that it has fallen below 4%.
The ISM service sector employment index fell to 45.9 points in April, below 50 for the third month in a row, and the employment data released last Friday (May 3) led to a decline in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to below 4.6%, recording the lowest… level since April 9, and interest rate futures once again reflected expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
3. The slowdown in inflation has stopped
Al
though the inflation slowdown in the United States has stalled, it is not enough for the Fed to abandon its dovish stance. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference after the meeting on May 1, Chairman Powell stated that the next interest rate adjustment from… It is unlikely to be a rate hike.
The core PCE index rose 2.8% annually in March, which is down from a high of 5.6% in February 2022 and is approaching the Fed’s forecast of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Therefore, inflation data may prevent a decline in the dollar index. Below the 50-day moving average (at around 104.56) next week.
The most important factors affecting the US dollar
The US dollar is variable and multiple factors can change the value of this currency. Being aware of these factors helps you make better decisions and prepare to make a profit in different financial markets. Below are the most important factors that can affect the US dollar.
1. Interest rate
One of the most important factors that affect the US
dollar is the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve Bank. A higher interest rate means an increase in the value of the US dollar as the price of money becomes more expensive. A lower interest rate means that the rate of lending or borrowing is cheaper, which reduces the value of the dollar, because This is a very important indicator that you should keep in mind so that you can see the path of the US dollar.
2. Economic growth rate
The most important indicator for any economy is the economic growth rate. A higher rate will increase the value of that national currency and a lower growth rate will reduce its value.
If the US economic growth rate increases, this is a positive signal that can increase the demand for the US dollar and grow its value. If the opposite scenario occurs, this will be a negative signal for the economy and can reduce the value of the economy, and even expectations about the US economy can change the price of the US dollar.
3. Inflation rate
The inflation rate is the average rate o
f prices of various products in the economy and services, and it is a very important indicator. A high inflation rate is a bad signal for the economy as it leads to higher prices and a decrease in the value of the national currency. However, a low inflation rate has a completely opposite effect to the scenario mentioned above, as it leads to an increase in the value of the national currency. The national currency because this is a positive signal for the economy.
Changes in the US inflation rate are a very important indicator that can change the value of the US dollar. A high inflation rate is a negative signal for the US dollar, while a low inflation rate is a positive signal for the US economy, which raises the value and price of the US dollar.
4. Unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is the number of all people aged 15 to 65 who have no job while they are actively searching for a job.
If the unemployment rate in the US economy increases it means that more people are out of work, which is a negative s
ignal for the economy that also shows slowing growth which will lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar.
Now if the unemployment rate decreases this indicates that the economy is growing and doing very well, it will benefit the entire society and the demand and value of the US dollar will continue to rise.
5. New monthly jobs
New jobs are one of the most important indicators of the American economy. The growth of new jobs monthly means that the economy is growing and can absorb the human resources of the economy very well, which is a positive indicator that will increase the value of the US dollar in the world.
The same is true when new job creation declines, and investors and economic activists see it as a bad signal that will devalue the US dollar.
6. Geopolitical tensions
There are more geopolitical tensions than ever before in the world, and for 2024 these tensions will continue to rise as there are many new powers in the world competing for more resources in the world.
Any geopolitical ten
sion is very good for the value of the US dollar because that will increase the demand for the national currency of the United States, as all people want to convert their money into US dollars because the US economy is the largest economy in the world and therefore it is a very safe place to put money.
7. Wars in the world
War means uncertainty, and it causes people to leave war zones and migrate to better and safer places, and since the United States is the most powerful country in the world and has the largest economy, it is the safest place to transfer capital and the best place to immigrate as well.
Any serious war in the world will cause the value of the US dollar to rise and the demand for this currency will continue to rise.
8. Retail sales
Retail sales show how consumers spend, so an increase in retail sales means that consumers are spending more and this is a very good sign for the economy, and if retail sales decrease, this is a negative indicator for the economy that indicates there is a probl
em within the economy.
Source: Maan News Agency